The results are in, confirming the CDU/CSU on 28.5%, the AfD in second place on 20.8% – its best result ever – the SPD slumping by 10 percentage points to 16.4% and the Greens to 11.6%.
The Left has surged to 8.8% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has just failed to get in after reaching just 4.972% according to the official results page.
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Updated at 02.26 CET
<div class=\”atom\” data-svelte-h=\”svelte-1a0yet2\”><div class=\”interactive-wrapper svelte-9mnz0u\”><h2>Latest German opinion polls</h2> <div class=\”gv-chart-wrapper svelte-9mnz0u\”><div class=\”gv-tt\”><div class=\”gv-tt__date\”></div> <div class=\”gv-tt__subhead\”>14-day rolling average %</div> <table><tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”CDU/CSU\”></span>CDU/CSU</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-CDU\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”SPD\”></span>SPD</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-SPD\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”GRÜNE\”></span>Grüne</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-GRÜNE\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”FDP\”></span>FDP</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-FDP\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”AfD\”></span>AfD</td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”LINKE\”></span>Linke</td></tr></table></div> <svg class=\”gv-chart-svg\”></svg> <div class=\”gv-caption\”><span>Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,</span>\n last updated <span class=\”gv-caption__updated\”></span></div></div></div> </div></div>”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740324551000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”16.29 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740324112000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”16.21 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”16.21″,”title”:”What is the voting system?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 02.26 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”},{“id”:”67bb36b48f08089227381df8″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Earlier this weekend, I also spoke with <strong>Dr Raphael Bossong </strong>of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for this blog to get his take on the election and ask him to guide us through the vote.</p>”,”elementId”:”44d26578-3be2-43aa-8027-b11aa2ec3c37″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>You will hear from him more throughout the day, but I started by asking him why <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news\” data-component=\”auto-linked-tag\”>Europe</a> should take note of the vote.</p>”,”elementId”:”9e3f26bc-729e-46c0-87b2-f4d79253fbc6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote>\n <p><em>Well, it’s a decisive election. I mean, they always say that, but definitely this one is really important for Germany and for Europe at the same time.</em></p>\n <p><em>The tasks for the next government are bigger than ever.</em></p>\n</blockquote>”,”elementId”:”fe20f984-3c51-4f63-a63e-e52f70cf5e8a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Watch what he had to say:</p>”,”elementId”:”1ed24260-8c9f-4e89-88a9-319a5b63a4b7″},{“expired”:false,”assetId”:”y_mRJBHCsuU”,”posterImage”:[{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/412d74dc0c64461e3f2802a9bbc56447e7e2fa7c/0_0_1920_1080/1000.jpg”,”width”:1000},{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/412d74dc0c64461e3f2802a9bbc56447e7e2fa7c/0_0_1920_1080/500.jpg”,”width”:500},{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/412d74dc0c64461e3f2802a9bbc56447e7e2fa7c/0_0_1920_1080/140.jpg”,”width”:140},{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/412d74dc0c64461e3f2802a9bbc56447e7e2fa7c/0_0_1920_1080/1920.jpg”,”width”:1920}],”id”:”55bb252d-0fd5-4308-8b67-3b07439442a1″,”elementId”:”13ef7383-0a8f-4d0b-a6e9-fb623c19fc49″,”duration”:62,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.YoutubeBlockElement”,”mediaTitle”:”‘It’s a decisive election’: Germans prepare to elect new chancellor – video”,”channelId”:”UCIRYBXDze5krPDzAEOxFGVA”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740322484000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”15.54 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740322800000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”16.00 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740322801000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”16.00 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”16.00″,”title”:”What’s at stake in this election? – expert says”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jakub Krupa”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2025/01/22/Jakub_Krupa.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=41cc9981ec7b067e2d3b5391c5a68a4f”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2025/01/22/Jakub_Krupa.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4a039a2b765744058f3c2c677268513e”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 02.26 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 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vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Philipp-Moritz Jenne/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Voter turnout at the ballot box by 2pm was <strong>at 52%</strong>, up from 36.5% at the same time in 2021 (+15.5pp, but take note that the 2021 election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, so some voters opted for postal vote instead), German federal electoral authorities have just confirmed.</p>”,”elementId”:”38facc7d-6498-418c-b096-97b97e29f597″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Looking at the state-by-state breakdown from earlier in the day, <a href=\”https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article255498964/Bundestagswahl-2025-Wahlbeteiligung-in-Thueringen-20-Prozent-hoeher-als-2021-Liveticker.html\”>reported by Welt</a>, it seems like there was a particularly high turnout in the state of <strong>Thuringia</strong> (44.5% at midday, up from 24.6% in 2021), which is an AfD stronghold and where the far-right party won the state elections in September last year.</p>”,”elementId”:”fdcad377-c028-43bb-91f6-04456386dc86″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Berlin also reported a higher turnout at noon with 33%, up from 25.4% in 2021.</p>”,”elementId”:”6ac744bd-f663-49a8-ae3c-d4878bda270e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Scholz urges German parties to exclude far right as AfD poised for state election victory”,”elementId”:”5cee11ac-e009-4aee-b348-5af480fb7501″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/01/german-far-right-party-afd-state-election-victory-thuringia”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740321787000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”15.43 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740322973000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”16.02 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740322435000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”15.53 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”15.53″,”title”:”High turnout reported by 2pm”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 02.26 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”},{“id”:”67bb2e6d8f0835381101aa9c”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Opinion is divided as <strong>Germany</strong> faces what some describe as the “most important election in their lifetime”. The country is expected to shift to the right as <strong>Friedrich Merz</strong> is in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, while far-right party <strong>AfD</strong> could become the second most powerful party.</p>”,”elementId”:”880d12c4-1279-4ae6-a7ba-74c59d02ced4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>So earlier today I asked voters at a polling station in central Berlin <strong>what they expected from the election</strong> and <strong>what they wanted the next chancellor to focus 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71.24em){.gv-caption{padding-left:10px}}.gv-threshold{font-size:12px;fill:#999;background-color:#fff;z-index:300}[data-party=SPD]{fill:#c70000;background:#c70000}[data-party=\”CDU/CSU\”]{fill:#333;background:#333}[data-party=FDP]{fill:#f5be2c;background:#f5be2c}[data-party=BSW]{fill:#bd5318;background:#bd5318}[data-party=GRÜNE]{fill:#3db540;background:#3db540}[data-party=AfD]{fill:#005689;background:#005689}[data-party=LINKE]{fill:#951d7a;background:#951d7a}[data-party-line=SPD]{stroke:#c70000}[data-party-line=\”CDU/CSU\”]{stroke:#333}[data-party-line=FDP]{stroke:#f5be2c}[data-party-line=LINKE]{stroke:#951d7a}[data-party-line=GRÜNE]{stroke:#3db540}[data-party-line=AfD]{stroke:#005689}[data-party-line=BSW]{stroke:#bd5318}\n”,”url”:”https://api.nextgen.guardianapps.co.uk/embed/atom/interactive/interactives%2F2024%2F11%2Fgerman-opinion-polls%2Fdefault”,”id”:”interactives/2024/11/german-opinion-polls/default”,”elementId”:”4f56a3ce-ba3f-4181-9f30-56459e4a7cea”,”js”:”\n var el = document.createElement(‘script’);\n el.src=”https://interactive.guim.co.uk/atoms/2024/11/german-opinion-polls/default/v/1737541389639/app.js”;\n document.body.appendChild(el);\n “,”title”:”Svelte atom template”,”html”:”<div id=\”gv-atom\”> <div class=\”atom\” data-svelte-h=\”svelte-1a0yet2\”><div class=\”interactive-wrapper svelte-9mnz0u\”><h2>Latest German opinion polls</h2> <div class=\”gv-chart-wrapper svelte-9mnz0u\”><div class=\”gv-tt\”><div class=\”gv-tt__date\”></div> <div class=\”gv-tt__subhead\”>14-day rolling average %</div> <table><tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”CDU/CSU\”></span>CDU/CSU</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-CDU\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”SPD\”></span>SPD</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-SPD\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”GRÜNE\”></span>Grüne</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-GRÜNE\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”FDP\”></span>FDP</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-FDP\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”AfD\”></span>AfD</td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”LINKE\”></span>Linke</td></tr></table></div> <svg class=\”gv-chart-svg\”></svg> <div class=\”gv-caption\”><span>Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,</span>\n last updated <span class=\”gv-caption__updated\”></span></div></div></div> </div></div>”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>There seems little doubt that, barring any major surprises, the conservative <strong>Merz</strong> will be Germany’s next chancellor. <strong>The CDU</strong> and its Bavarian sister party, <strong>the Christian Social Union (CSU)</strong>, have been <strong>consistently and comfortably ahead</strong> in the polls on about 30%, with the <strong>Alternative für Deutschland</strong> second on 20-21%.</p>”,”elementId”:”44110ff4-bce4-47a2-8f30-74bef045e432″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>There is no apparent route to power for the far-right AfD since all other parties have ruled out working with a party they consider undemocratic.</p>”,”elementId”:”ee0663e1-3a26-4697-8ac9-490eedc62f22″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>According to the <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/jan/07/german-election-2025-opinion-poll-tracker-bundestag-chancellor\”>Guardian’s poll tracker</a>, <strong>the SPD</strong> are third on about 15% and the Greens fourth on <strong>13%</strong>. The leftwing <strong>Die Linke</strong> are predicted to clear the 5% hurdle and expected to secure around 7-8% but it looks far from certain that the “conservative-left” <strong>Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance</strong> (BSW) or liberal <strong>FDP</strong> will do the same.</p>”,”elementId”:”3a46a529-8a59-4193-a45f-15201d98a4e6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Depending on whether that trio (plus the local associations of Free Voters (FW), who could do well in Bavaria) score 5% or more, or qualify via the three-seat exception, <strong>the next assembly could have four parties or eight, the most in modern history.</strong></p>”,”elementId”:”b554ac03-5c08-4c73-a925-5031d1bac653″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>That makes the distribution of seats in the new parliament <strong>very hard to predict.</strong> However, most analysts see the most likely outcome being a CDU-led coalition government including either Scholz’s Social Democrats or the Greens, or maybe both.</p>”,”elementId”:”17691cb9-a6eb-4ca0-baf5-db5e3a601b6b”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740317435000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”14.30 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740317435000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”14.30 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”14.30″,”title”:”What do the polls say?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 02.26 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”},{“id”:”67babdb98f0835381101a89c”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><em>Europe correspondent</em></p>”,”elementId”:”eea11681-40bf-494a-9b83-eea806f02453″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria</strong> (CDU/CSU) frontrunners, led by wealthy former asset manager <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/who-is-friedrich-merz-germany-next-chancellor-scholz-merkel\”>Friedrich Merz</a>, are proposing to cut taxes, tighten welfare eligibility, slash immigration, process asylum claims abroad, and boost aid to Ukraine.</p>”,”elementId”:”30031043-acc9-4e67-a1c0-a1dc5da34fc7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The far-right <strong>Alternative für Deutschland</strong> (AfD) has endorsed the concept of “re-migration”, threatening the mass deportation of migrants. It also pledges a return to the deutschmark, military conscription, and sweeping education reforms.</p>”,”elementId”:”c0650e76-5ea3-4414-983a-5ccea2c330c8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Scholz’s <strong>Social Democratic party (SPD)</strong> aims to support low-income families by cutting VAT on food and tax for low earners and raising the minimum wage. It also aims to curb immigration and proposes a €100bn infrastructure investment fund, but is more cautious on Ukraine. Scholz has refused to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, defending the decision as a “prudent” anti-escalation measure.</p>”,”elementId”:”0948c632-4f62-4c5e-a2e9-ab1e7fb4405b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>The Greens</strong> have announced plans for a “billionaire tax” to help poorer households through the green transition. They are also in favour of increasing the minimum wage and are pushing for incentives to speed up the switch to renewable 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posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”caption”:”Election posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740314884000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.48 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740314884000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.48 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.48″,”title”:”Who are the key players and what have they promised?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 02.26 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”},{“id”:”67babb568f08089227381baf”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><em>Europe correspondent</em></p>”,”elementId”:”9941ad03-9d54-4b1a-bfe6-f895cc9f6d72″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The <strong>three-way “traffic-light” coalition</strong> of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 <strong><a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/06/german-government-on-brink-of-collapse-after-olaf-scholz-sacks-finance-minister\”>collapsed in November</a></strong> under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.</p>”,”elementId”:”02560526-41de-4903-97cd-1510808107cc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, <strong>Olaf Scholz</strong>, <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/06/german-government-on-brink-of-collapse-after-olaf-scholz-sacks-finance-minister\”>fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner</a>, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/16/german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-loses-confidence-vote-triggering-early-elections\”>which he duly did</a>.</p>”,”elementId”:”ef3b5ba9-b7b1-4852-9211-c830dd625828″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, <a href=\”https://www.dw.com/en/germany-bridge-in-dresden-collapses-into-elbe-river/a-70185172\”>crumbling infrastructure</a> and an economy that has <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/15/german-economy-shrinks-for-second-year-in-a-row-2024\”>shrunk for two consecutive years</a> for the first time in decades.</p>”,”elementId”:”2f853b3f-922f-4bdb-b8f3-323dd09153ce”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/18/china-economy-slow-growth-yuan\”>slowdown with trade partner China</a> has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/14/germany-car-industry-donald-trump-tariffs\”>slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs)</a> and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.</p>”,”elementId”:”bffe0c3b-baa5-4c33-818f-a7f48716cc99″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Optimists</strong> say the vote could give <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/germany\” data-component=\”auto-linked-tag\”>Germany</a> a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. <strong>Pessimists</strong> say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to 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chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”caption”:”German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Carsten Koall/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740312506000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.08 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740312506000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.08 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.08″,”title”:”Why does the German election matter?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 02.26 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”},{“id”:”67bab6bf8f086d399220521d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Guten Tag</strong>, and good day from <strong>Berlin</strong>.</p>”,”elementId”:”ef944168-c318-4888-ab20-b05d8aa6c599″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Sixty million <strong>Germans</strong> choose their next government today, which will lead Europe’s largest economy through what will most likely be the most tumultuous era in decades.</p>”,”elementId”:”3efe5cba-cb87-4cc1-9708-36db5c802fc5″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Voters have to choose who will be given the task of steering <a href=\”https://www.theguardian.com/world/germany\” data-component=\”auto-linked-tag\”>Germany</a> through an <strong>existential security crisis in Europe</strong> with Ukraine and Russia, while at the same time facing unprecedented<strong> structural challenges to the country’s economic model</strong> amid a <strong>worsening geopolitical outlook abroad</strong>, most obviously characterised by a <strong>crumbling transatlantic alliance</strong> with the new US administration of Donald Trump.</p>”,”elementId”:”3602bd43-9fae-4848-ab04-2707a194cd61″},{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”2631″,”width”:”4384″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/4384.jpg”},{“index”:1,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”isMaster”:”true”,”height”:”2631″,”width”:”4384″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg”},{“index”:2,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”1200″,”width”:”2000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/2000.jpg”},{“index”:3,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”600″,”width”:”1000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/1000.jpg”},{“index”:4,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”300″,”width”:”500″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/500.jpg”},{“index”:5,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”84″,”width”:”140″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/140.jpg”}]},”elementId”:”f8ea9126-02ea-4dc8-9b20-8794fd4bd1a3″,”imageSources”:[{“weighting”:”inline”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=8cbc78f9069cfcc32c8cf52f2b5b0c02″,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=90cfc4b14d364e8d88ae094cda3985c8″,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c7e7c35cf334ab6ab523bcf5c1bf4d61″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=51560b7b1c7ef22bab460fb4c3f7a2f1″,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d6705aabf406e4d05db8a136d6f3b9bc”,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=8448ca7accf6eb440548b843c60f5835″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”thumbnail”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=9cbdb91d603903d3e94250dfcb1397ba”,”width”:140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f31651018413bb6725fe20a56016b978″,”width”:280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=120&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=813cda0a2e2d48f13bd691d16065636c”,”width”:120},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=120&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=ed53fa7ad94db1bdcca51f913e8527c5″,”width”:240}]},{“weighting”:”supporting”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=380&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=faba00fab03aa809c6e4b4add4d8f887″,”width”:380},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=380&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=37d0246fc7c36219781cdb264f0452bf”,”width”:760},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=e3c031ba5b5ef08aef554e8588f85826″,”width”:300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3e64848407f5fd84270aa9372e171456″,”width”:600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=8cbc78f9069cfcc32c8cf52f2b5b0c02″,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5918309d19de3b04de3926090f2a45385fe96a2b/0_146_4384_2631/master/4384.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=90cfc4b14d364e8d88ae094cda3985c8″,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/me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man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The conservative opposition chief <strong>Friedrich Merz</strong> is widely expected to score a win and get the job. But other than that, there are more questions than answers. Who will he govern with? How many parties will get into the Bundestag? Will the far-right once again see record rises in their support, and if so, what will this mean for German politics?</p>”,”elementId”:”51dc1fec-3909-4d62-bd1e-d88f9c3c0810″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The polling stations have been open since 8am local time (7am GMT) and will close at <strong>6pm local time</strong> (5pm GMT) when we should get an exit poll and a first indication of what awaits Germany next.</p>”,”elementId”:”aca21505-d124-4c8f-bce7-f193f8f9302d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>We will bring you all the key updates throughout the day, helping you to understand the context of the vote, summarising the main themes of the campaign, and bringing first-hand reports from on the ground in Berlin.</p>”,”elementId”:”ea184130-51a4-4d7b-8b95-693088a15ba4″},{“expired”:false,”assetId”:”HSrg6_CCtH8″,”posterImage”:[{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/15dc9d7490f81e9926bab756a9bfb5e208fd600c/0_0_1920_1080/1000.jpg”,”width”:1000},{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/15dc9d7490f81e9926bab756a9bfb5e208fd600c/0_0_1920_1080/500.jpg”,”width”:500},{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/15dc9d7490f81e9926bab756a9bfb5e208fd600c/0_0_1920_1080/140.jpg”,”width”:140},{“url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/15dc9d7490f81e9926bab756a9bfb5e208fd600c/0_0_1920_1080/1920.jpg”,”width”:1920}],”id”:”0ffc1362-1d23-438a-a9d3-12dc825acddd”,”elementId”:”155859be-80cb-4fcd-83bc-bb9f69057fa6″,”duration”:33,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.YoutubeBlockElement”,”mediaTitle”:”The Guardian’s Jakub Krupa previews our German election coverage from Berlin – video”,”channelId”:”UCIRYBXDze5krPDzAEOxFGVA”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740310762000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740310774000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”12.39″,”title”:”Opening: Germany votes”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jakub Krupa”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2025/01/22/Jakub_Krupa.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=41cc9981ec7b067e2d3b5391c5a68a4f”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2025/01/22/Jakub_Krupa.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4a039a2b765744058f3c2c677268513e”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 02.26 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”,”absoluteServerTimes”:false,”renderingTarget”:”Web”}”>
Key events
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Berlin-based journalist Thomas Vorreyer points out that had the vote been based only on those aged between 35 and 44 the AfD would have come out top. 26% of people in that age category voted for the far right party, with the CDU/CSU in second place on 24%.
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The far-right AfD has won in all five former East German states, Spiegel reports; that’s the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Saxony and Thuringia.
It has well over 30% of the vote in each state and as much as 38.6% in Thuringia – that’s where the AfD made history in September as the first far-right party to win a state election since the second world war.
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The results are in, confirming the CDU/CSU on 28.5%, the AfD in second place on 20.8% – its best result ever – the SPD slumping by 10 percentage points to 16.4% and the Greens to 11.6%.
The Left has surged to 8.8% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has just failed to get in after reaching just 4.972% according to the official results page.
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Updated at 02.26 CET
FDP leader Christian Lindner resigns
As the vote-count nears completion, Christian Lindner, the leader of the liberal FDP, has resigned after it became clear his party would fail to reach the 5% threshold.
In a post on X, he said would retire from active politics:
The parliamentary elections brought defeat for the FDP but hopefully a new start for Germany. That’s what I fought for. Now I’m retiring from active politics. I have only one feeling: gratitude for almost 25 intense, challenging years full of productive work and debate.
Lindner, 46, served as finance minister in Olaf Scholz’s unwieldy three-way coalition government but was often at odds with the Social Democrat chancellor.
Matters came to a head in November when Scholz fired him after a bitter falling out over government spending, paving the way for the collapse of the coalition and early elections.
ShareWhat the papers say
The German papers are giving their verdicts on the day’s events. Bild, the country’s largest circulation newspaper, declared “Merz does it!” in its headline, adding among other things “SPD so bad as never before!”, “AfD almost doubled”, “The Greens cry, the Left celebrates”.
Photograph: Bild
The Süddeutsche Zeitung has used a quote from the victorious Friedrich Merz as its headline: “The world out there isn’t waiting for us” and reports that the chancellor-in-waiting wants to form a coalition by Easter.
Photograph: suddeutsche-zeitung
The Handelsblatt splashes on “Election winner Merz”, adding “The Union (CDU/CSU) wins the elections. The AfD achieves a record result. The SPD loses drastically – and the FDP fails to pass the 5% hurdle.”
Photograph: HandelsblattShare
One of the key things on Friedrich’s Merz’s plate will be dealing with Donald Trump and the effect his administration will have on Nato and the war in Ukraine in particular.
“I never thought I would need to say something like this on television,” Merz said on a post-election panel of party leaders. “But after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear: this American government doesn’t care for Europe.”
Merz also criticised what he called “interference” from Elon Musk, who has promoted the AfD, “drastic and shameful – similar to what we’ve heard from Moscow in the past”.
And he said that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June.
He added that he had not given up hope that Ukraine would be included in any negotiations with Russia on its future, perhaps with the “intervention of the US Congress” on Kyiv’s behalf against any attempt at exclusion by Trump.
“We need to see whether we don’t need to become more quickly independent in Europe in terms of our defence capabilities,” he added.
On Friday, Merz told public broadcaster ZDF that Germany would need to come to terms with the possibility that Trump might not stick with Nato’s mutual-defence pledge unrestrictedly.
He said this meant that Berlin might need to become less reliant on the US with regard to their nuclear umbrella and advocated talks with Europe’s nuclear powers France and Britain about an expansion of their nuclear protection.
Merz, a transatlanticist, has been more hawkish against Russia than the acting Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suggesting medium-range Taurus missiles might be sent to Kyiv under his reign, something Scholz has strictly rejected.
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The Greens’ candidate for chancellor, vice chancellor Robert Habeck, has said that Merz would do well to moderate his tone after a hard-fought campaign. Merz has repeatedly criticised Habeck as a “failed” economy minister and said he will break up Habeck’s joint portfolio of economy and climate action in his cabinet.
“We have seen the centre is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn’t contribute to that,” said Habeck. “Now he [Merz] must see that he acts like a chancellor.”
While the Greens coalition partner, the SPD, has lost heavily in these elections (down about 10 percentage points) and the FDP looks set to disappear from parliament, the Greens have lost only about 3 percentage points.
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In its latest projection the broadcaster ZDF has put the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 5% – just enough to get it into parliament.
That will in turn affect how many seats other parties get and whether Friedrich Merz will have to turn to a third party – realistically the Greens, with whom the CDU and CSU disagree on many subjects – in order to form a coalition.
The liberal FDP, which brought down Olaf Scholz’s coalition last year, is on 4.4% according to ZDF, not enough to get into parliament.
Sahra Wagenknecht (R) of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. Photograph: Ronny Hartmann/AFP/Getty ImagesShare
Updated at 00.48 CET
Ashifa Kassam
For more than 150 years, the symbolism of the Siegessäule, or Victory Column, in Berlin’s Tiergarten, has shifted alongside German identity: from emblem of the empire to strategic relocation by the Nazis and, finally, its adoption as an icon of Berlin’s legendary love parade.
On Sunday, as throngs of people gathered in its shadow, the golden statue bore witness to yet another shift – an election that had yielded an emboldened far right in a result that was unprecedented in Germany’s postwar history.
“I’m devastated,” said David, 32. “And I’m scared and sad.”
Preliminary results suggested that although the conservative CDU/CSU bloc had won the largest share of the vote (29%), likely to be the second force in the parliament was the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which garnered about 20% of the vote.
Polls had long predicted this result, said David, who declined to give his surname. But now the question was what exactly it meant for the millions of Germans who were either racialised, like him, or who are migrants.
Read on below:
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The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, has also congratulated Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU on their victory. In a post on X he wrote:
I look forward to working with the new government to deepen our already strong relationship, enhance our joint security and deliver growth for both our countries.
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Updated at 00.45 CET
Emmanuel Macron has offered his congratulations to Friedrich Merz and his “friendship” to Olaf Scholz, with whom he has had an at times fraught relationship. In a post on X, the French president said:
I just spoke with Friedrich Merz to congratulate him on his victory in the German elections.
I also had an exchange with Olaf Scholz to express my friendship on this evening.
We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany and work towards a strong and sovereign Europe. In this time of uncertainty, we are united to face the major challenges of the world and our continent.
This is Helen Livingstone taking over the blog from my colleague Maya Yang.
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Updated at 00.18 CET